Evaluating Alternative Operations Strategies to Improve Travel Time Reliability (2013) / Chapter Skim
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38 Using Alternative Futures to Identify Trends The objective of crafting alternative futures is to group the current and potential range of trends and scenarios described in Chapter 1 to identify the following: • A range of cumulative impacts on the operation of the transportation system and the demands placed on it; • Frequency of nonrecurring congestion; • Priorities likely to be placed on mitigating such congestion; • Technologies that may either exacerbate the problem or facilitate effective responses to it; and • Broader social and environmental contexts within which the future transportation system is managed. These alternative futures are not forecasts but rather an attempt to bound the trends that might affect congestion and reliability.
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39 Technology Considerable increases in the capability and application of imbedded sensors in all aspects of life are anticipated. For the transportation system, this means access to low-cost, high-accuracy data on component performance and condition.
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40 Freight Trends Economic growth and increasing population will result in a rapidly increased demand for freight and freight movements. Congestion due to higher passenger VMT growth and infrastructure capacity limitations will lead to freight mode shifts from truck to rail, water, and (to a lesser extent)
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41 Alternative Future 2: The Mediocre Scenario The driving variables -- climate change, the economy, and energy -- will be in a range that supports moderate economic growth as well as the deployment of advanced technologies for transportation systems and operations. Energy prices will continue to increase, but supply, in the form of traditional and alternative fuel sources, will be fairly reliable.
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42 Congestion and infrastructure capacity limitations will lead to occasional freight system disruptions. Finance A broader application of vehicle-use charges will occur that is based on location and time of day.
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43 Climate Expected changes in weather that are to occur over a 40- to 60-year timeframe will occur much sooner. Some of these changes and likely impacts are shown in Table 5.3.
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44 transportation. This could mean more mixed-use developments, more-dense development through land-use and zoning regulations, more urban concentration, and more emphasis on safer and better infrastructure for pedestrians and bicyclists.
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45 of studies. It provides a basis for developing a robust set of concepts of operations for the future.
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46 Table 5.5. Alternative Futures Summary Alternative 1: Optimistic Scenario Alternative 2: Mediocre Scenario Alternative 3: Pessimistic Scenario Scenario Drivers Environment and climate change Rare-weather events insignificant Moderate increase in rare-weather events Significant increase in rare-weather events Economy Strong annual GDP growth (3%–4%)
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