Intelligence Analysis for Tomorrow Advances from the Behavioral and Social Sciences (2011) / Chapter Skim
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1 Challenges for the Intelligence Community
1 Challenges for the Intelligence Community
Pages 5-22
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From page 5... ...
. Of this number, roughly 20,000 work as analysts, a category that includes both intelligence analysts who work primarily with information obtained from a single type of source, such as imagery, intercepted signals, clandestine human intelligence, diplomatic and attaché reporting, and "open source" or unclassified information and analysts who routinely work with information obtained from many sources (all-source analysts)
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MO2: Counter Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation Counter the proliferation of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery by state and non-state actors. MO3: Provide Strategic Intelligence and Warning Warn of strategic trends and events so that policymakers, military officials, and civil authorities can effectively deter, prevent, or respond to threats and take ad vantage of opportunities.
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EO7: Improve Acquisition Improve cost, schedule, performance, planning, execution, and transparency in major system acquisitions, while promoting innovation and agility. SOURCE: Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2009c)
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. In addition, IC analysts work for three entities -- the National Intelligence Council, the National Counterterrorism Center, and the National Counterintelligence Executive -- that are part of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (ODNI)
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Both types have to be considered when seeking to improve intelligence analysis. The IC is still adjusting to the dramatic shift from the Cold War era to the very different demands of the 21st century.
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These customers ask different questions, require different intelligence support, and have different tolerance levels for false alarms and ability to plan for worst-case scenarios than the IC's traditional military customers. Their questions require analyses on complex, interrelated domestic and foreign issues; with players from multiple countries and nongovernmental entities; and with a wide range of political, economic, social, and technical dimensions.
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In order to support these needs, the IC has created such innovations as Intellipedia, A-Space, the Analytic Resources Catalog, and the Library of National Intelligence.1 In addition to these tools, internal deliberations on the best analytic techniques for different classes of problems, as well as deliberations about the individuals and procedures needed to apply them, are necessary to cultivate analytic skill. These are all human activities, requiring expertise that resides in the behavioral and social sciences.2 These sciences include the scientific study of understanding, judgment, and collaboration and communication, within and across organizations.
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. In its call for sweeping changes in the IC, the Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 described open information as "a valuable source that must be integrated into the intelligence cycle to ensure that United States policymakers are fully and completely informed" (Section 1052.a.2.)
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One barrier is securing systematic feedback regarding analytical performance. Research has shown that outcome feedback is vital to correcting errors and reinforcing accurate performance (e.g., Kluger and DeNisi, 1996)
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525) : Because of its glamour and mystery, overemphasis is generally placed on what is called secret intelligence, namely the intelligence that is obtained by secret means and by secret agents.
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, could easily be nonsecretively elicited from similar sources abroad. In 2005, the Commission on the Intelligence Capabilities of the United States Regarding Weapons of Mass Destruction (2005, p.
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; the strategic plan of the Defense Intelligence Agency (n.d.) ; and the CIA mission statement (Central Intelligence Agency, n.d.)
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In response to the need to explore new analytic processes and practices for the IC, the Office of the Director of National Intelligence asked the National Research Council to establish a committee to synthesize and assess evidence from the behavioral and social sciences relevant to analytic methods and their potential application for the IC: see Box 1-3 for the full charge. This report, along with a companion collection of papers, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations, is the committee's response to that charge.
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The committee's companion volume offers more details on the research summarized in this consensus report. The companion volume is designed to be suited to individual reading or courses incorporating the behavioral and social sciences in the work and training of intelligence analysts.
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. Central Intelligence Agency.
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. Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations.
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In National Research Council, Intelligence Analysis: Behavioral and Social Scientific Foundations. Committee on Behavioral and Social Science Research to Improve Intelligence Analysis for National Security, B
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