ADVANCING LAND CHANGE MODELING
Opportunities and Research Requirements
Committee on Needs and Research Requirements for Land Change Modeling
Geographical Sciences Committee
Board on Earth Sciences and Resources
Division on Earth and Life Studies
NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.
This study was supported by Grant No. G10AP00104 between the National Academy of Sciences and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Grant No. NNX10AT12G between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES
Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine
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COMMITTEE ON NEEDS AND RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS FOR LAND CHANGE MODELING
DANIEL G. BROWN (Chair), University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
LAWRENCE E. BAND, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
KATHLEEN O. GREEN, Kass Green and Associates, Berkeley, Calif.
ELENA G. IRWIN, Ohio State University, Columbus
ATUL JAIN, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign
ERIC F. LAMBIN, Stanford University and University of Louvain
ROBERT G. PONTIUS JR., Clark University, Worchester, Mass.
KAREN C. SETO, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, New Haven
B. L. TURNER II, Arizona State University, Tempe
PETER H. VERBURG, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam
National Research Council Staff
MARK D. LANGE, Study Director
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate (from July 2012)
JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate (until July 2012)
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant (from August 2013)
CHANDA T. IJAMES, Senior Program Assistant (until August 2013)
GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES COMMITTEE
WILLIAM L. GRAF (Chair), University of South Carolina, Columbia
ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Clark University, Worcester
WILLIAM E. EASTERLING III, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
CAROL P. HARDEN, University of Tennessee, Knoxville
JOHN A. KELMELIS, Pennsylvania State University, University Park
AMY L. LUERS, Skoll Global Threats Fund, Palo Alto
GLEN M. MACDONALD, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles
PATRICIA MCDOWELL, University of Oregon, Eugene
SUSANNE C. MOSER, Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, Santa Cruz, California
DAVID R. RAIN, George Washington University, Washington, D.C.
KAREN C. SETO, Yale University, New Haven
National Research Council Staff
MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES
CORALE L. BRIERLEY (Chair), Brierley Consultancy, LLC, Denver, Colorado
SUSAN L. CUTTER, University of South Carolina, Columbia
WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia
MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden
EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, JR, Arizona State University, Tempe
ANN S. MAEST, Stratus Consulting, Boulder, Colorado
DAVID R. MAIDMENT, University of Texas, Austin
ROBERT MCMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis
M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado
ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis
CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico
BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville
CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Idaho Operations Office (retired), Ocean Park, Washington
HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor
DAVID T. SANDWELL, University of California, San Diego
PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego
REGINAL SPILLER, Azimuth Investments, LLC, Houston, Texas
GENE WHITNEY, Independent Consultant, Washington, D.C.
National Research Council Staff
ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Director
ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer
SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer
MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer
NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate
COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate
ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant
Acknowledgments
This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:
Richard Aspinall, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen
Michael Batty, University College London, London
Keith Clarke, University of California, Santa Barbara
Ronald Eastman, Clark University, Worcester
Johannes Feddema, University of Kansas, Lawrence
Alan Murray, Arizona State University, Tempe
Cindy Nickerson, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C.
Bryan Pijanowski, Purdue University, West Lafayette
David Skole, Michigan State University, East Lansing
Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse—nor did they see—the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Kate Beard-Tisdale, University of Maine, Orono. Appointed by the Division on
Earth and Life Studies, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Research Council.
Contents
1 THE STATE OF LAND CHANGE MODELING
The Significance of Land Systems and Land Change Models
Needs for Science and Practice
Measurement and Characterization of Land Change
2 LAND CHANGE MODELING APPROACHES
Machine Learning and Statistical
Sector-Based and Spatially Disaggregated Economic
A Comparison of Land Change Modeling Approaches
3 IMPROVING LAND CHANGE MODELING
Opportunities for Advances in Land Change Models
Opportunities in Land Observation Strategies
Opportunities in Cyberinfrastructure
Opportunities for Infrastructure to Support Land Change Modeling