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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18385.
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ADVANCING LAND CHANGE MODELING

                                                      Opportunities and Research Requirements

Committee on Needs and Research Requirements for Land Change Modeling

Geographical Sciences Committee

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                          OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

www.nap.edu

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18385.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS     500 Fifth Street, N.W.     Washington, DC 20001

NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance.

This study was supported by Grant No. G10AP00104 between the National Academy of Sciences and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Grant No. NNX10AT12G between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project.

International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-28833-0

International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-28833-9

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Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved.

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18385.
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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine

The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences.

The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering.

The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine.

The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council.

www.national-academies.org

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18385.
×

COMMITTEE ON NEEDS AND RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS FOR LAND CHANGE MODELING

DANIEL G. BROWN (Chair), University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

LAWRENCE E. BAND, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

KATHLEEN O. GREEN, Kass Green and Associates, Berkeley, Calif.

ELENA G. IRWIN, Ohio State University, Columbus

ATUL JAIN, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign

ERIC F. LAMBIN, Stanford University and University of Louvain

ROBERT G. PONTIUS JR., Clark University, Worchester, Mass.

KAREN C. SETO, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, New Haven

B. L. TURNER II, Arizona State University, Tempe

PETER H. VERBURG, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam

National Research Council Staff

MARK D. LANGE, Study Director

NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate (from July 2012)

JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate (until July 2012)

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant (from August 2013)

CHANDA T. IJAMES, Senior Program Assistant (until August 2013)

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18385.
×

GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES COMMITTEE

WILLIAM L. GRAF (Chair), University of South Carolina, Columbia

ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Clark University, Worcester

WILLIAM E. EASTERLING III, Pennsylvania State University, University Park

CAROL P. HARDEN, University of Tennessee, Knoxville

JOHN A. KELMELIS, Pennsylvania State University, University Park

AMY L. LUERS, Skoll Global Threats Fund, Palo Alto

GLEN M. MACDONALD, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles

PATRICIA MCDOWELL, University of Oregon, Eugene

SUSANNE C. MOSER, Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, Santa Cruz, California

DAVID R. RAIN, George Washington University, Washington, D.C.

KAREN C. SETO, Yale University, New Haven

National Research Council Staff

MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer

NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18385.
×

BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES

CORALE L. BRIERLEY (Chair), Brierley Consultancy, LLC, Denver, Colorado

SUSAN L. CUTTER, University of South Carolina, Columbia

WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia

MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden

EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, JR, Arizona State University, Tempe

ANN S. MAEST, Stratus Consulting, Boulder, Colorado

DAVID R. MAIDMENT, University of Texas, Austin

ROBERT MCMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis

M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado

ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis

CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico

BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville

CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Idaho Operations Office (retired), Ocean Park, Washington

HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor

DAVID T. SANDWELL, University of California, San Diego

PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego

REGINAL SPILLER, Azimuth Investments, LLC, Houston, Texas

GENE WHITNEY, Independent Consultant, Washington, D.C.

National Research Council Staff

ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Director

ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer

SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer

MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer

NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate

COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate

ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18385.
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Acknowledgments

This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report:

Richard Aspinall, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen

Michael Batty, University College London, London

Keith Clarke, University of California, Santa Barbara

Ronald Eastman, Clark University, Worcester

Johannes Feddema, University of Kansas, Lawrence

Alan Murray, Arizona State University, Tempe

Cindy Nickerson, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C.

Bryan Pijanowski, Purdue University, West Lafayette

David Skole, Michigan State University, East Lansing

Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse—nor did they see—the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Kate Beard-Tisdale, University of Maine, Orono. Appointed by the Division on

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Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18385.
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Earth and Life Studies, she was responsible for making certain that an independent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsibility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring committee and the National Research Council.

Suggested Citation:"Front Matter." National Research Council. 2014. Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. doi: 10.17226/18385.
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People are constantly changing the land surface through construction, agriculture, energy production, and other activities. Changes both in how land is used by people (land use) and in the vegetation, rock, buildings, and other physical material that cover the Earth's surface (land cover) can be described and future land change can be projected using land-change models (LCMs). LCMs are a key means for understanding how humans are reshaping the Earth's surface in the past and present, for forecasting future landscape conditions, and for developing policies to manage our use of resources and the environment at scales ranging from an individual parcel of land in a city to vast expanses of forests around the world.

Advancing Land Change Modeling: Opportunities and Research Requirements describes various LCM approaches, suggests guidance for their appropriate application, and makes recommendations to improve the integration of observation strategies into the models. This report provides a summary and evaluation of several modeling approaches, and their theoretical and empirical underpinnings, relative to complex land-change dynamics and processes, and identifies several opportunities for further advancing the science, data, and cyberinfrastructure involved in the LCM enterprise. Because of the numerous models available, the report focuses on describing the categories of approaches used along with selected examples, rather than providing a review of specific models. Additionally, because all modeling approaches have relative strengths and weaknesses, the report compares these relative to different purposes. Advancing Land Change Modeling's recommendations for assessment of future data and research needs will enable model outputs to better assist the science, policy, and decisionsupport communities.

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