ADVANCING LAND CHANGE MODELING

                                                      Opportunities and Research Requirements

Committee on Needs and Research Requirements for Land Change Modeling

Geographical Sciences Committee

Board on Earth Sciences and Resources

Division on Earth and Life Studies

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL
                          OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS

Washington, D.C.

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Committee on Needs and Research Requirements for Land Change Modeling Geographical Sciences Committee Board on Earth Sciences and Resources Division on Earth and Life Studies

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THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS   500 Fifth Street, N.W.   Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported by Grant No. G10AP00104 between the National Acad- emy of Sciences and the United States Geological Survey (USGS) and Grant No. NNX10AT12G between the National Academy of Sciences and the National Aero- nautics and Space Administration (NASA). Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number-13: 978-0-309-28833-0 International Standard Book Number-10: 0-309-28833-9 Additional copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet http://www.nap.edu Cover: Cover design by Van Nguyen. Copyright 2014 by the National Academy of Sciences. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America.

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The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examina- tion of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the Na- tional Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Ralph J. Cicerone and Dr. C. D. Mote, Jr., are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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COMMITTEE ON NEEDS AND RESEARCH REQUIREMENTS FOR LAND CHANGE MODELING DANIEL G. BROWN (Chair), University of Michigan, Ann Arbor LAWRENCE E. BAND, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill KATHLEEN O. GREEN, Kass Green and Associates, Berkeley, Calif. ELENA G. IRWIN, Ohio State University, Columbus ATUL JAIN, University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign ERIC F. LAMBIN, Stanford University and University of Louvain ROBERT G. PONTIUS JR., Clark University, Worchester, Mass. KAREN C. SETO, Yale School of Forestry & Environmental Studies, New Haven B. L. TURNER II, Arizona State University, Tempe PETER H. VERBURG, Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam National Research Council Staff MARK D. LANGE, Study Director NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate (from July 2012) JASON R. ORTEGO, Research Associate (until July 2012) ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant (from August 2013) CHANDA T. IJAMES, Senior Program Assistant (until August 2013) iv

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GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES COMMITTEE WILLIAM L. GRAF (Chair), University of South Carolina, Columbia ANTHONY BEBBINGTON, Clark University, Worcester WILLIAM E. EASTERLING III, Pennsylvania State University, University Park CAROL P. HARDEN, University of Tennessee, Knoxville JOHN A. KELMELIS, Pennsylvania State University, University Park AMY L. LUERS, Skoll Global Threats Fund, Palo Alto GLEN M. MACDONALD, University of California at Los Angeles, Los Angeles PATRICIA MCDOWELL, University of Oregon, Eugene SUSANNE C. MOSER, Susanne Moser Research & Consulting, Santa Cruz, California DAVID R. RAIN, George Washington University, Washington, D.C. KAREN C. SETO, Yale University, New Haven National Research Council Staff MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant v

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BOARD ON EARTH SCIENCES AND RESOURCES CORALE L. BRIERLEY (Chair), Brierley Consultancy, LLC, Denver, Colorado SUSAN L. CUTTER, University of South Carolina, Columbia WILLIAM L. GRAF, University of South Carolina, Columbia MURRAY W. HITZMAN, Colorado School of Mines, Golden EDWARD KAVAZANJIAN, JR, Arizona State University, Tempe ANN S. MAEST, Stratus Consulting, Boulder, Colorado DAVID R. MAIDMENT, University of Texas, Austin ROBERT MCMASTER, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis M. MEGHAN MILLER, UNAVCO, Inc., Boulder, Colorado ISABEL P. MONTAÑEZ, University of California, Davis CLAUDIA INÉS MORA, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Los Alamos, New Mexico BRIJ M. MOUDGIL, University of Florida, Gainesville CLAYTON R. NICHOLS, Idaho Operations Office (retired), Ocean Park, Washington HENRY N. POLLACK, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor DAVID T. SANDWELL, University of California, San Diego PETER M. SHEARER, University of California, San Diego REGINAL SPILLER, Azimuth Investments, LLC, Houston, Texas GENE WHITNEY, Independent Consultant, Washington, D.C. National Research Council Staff ELIZABETH A. EIDE, Director ANNE M. LINN, Senior Program Officer SAMMANTHA L. MAGSINO, Senior Program Officer MARK D. LANGE, Program Officer NICHOLAS D. ROGERS, Financial and Research Associate COURTNEY R. GIBBS, Program Associate ERIC J. EDKIN, Senior Program Assistant vi

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Acknowledgments This report has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their diverse perspectives and technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as pos- sible and to ensure that the report meets institutional standards for objectivity, evidence, and responsiveness to the study charge. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the deliberative process. We thank the following individuals for their participation in the review of this report: Richard Aspinall, University of Aberdeen, Aberdeen Michael Batty, University College London, London Keith Clarke, University of California, Santa Barbara Ronald Eastman, Clark University, Worcester Johannes Feddema, University of Kansas, Lawrence Alan Murray, Arizona State University, Tempe Cindy Nickerson, U.S. Department of Agriculture, Washington, D.C. Bryan Pijanowski, Purdue University, West Lafayette David Skole, Michigan State University, East Lansing Although the reviewers listed above provided many constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse—nor did they see—the final draft of the report before its release. The review of this report was overseen by Kate Beard-Tisdale, University of Maine, Orono. Appointed by the Division on vii

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viii ACKNOWLEDGMENTS Earth and Life Studies, she was responsible for making certain that an indepen- dent examination of the report was carried out in accordance with institutional procedures and that all review comments were carefully considered. Responsi- bility for the final content of this report rests entirely with the authoring com- mittee and the National Research Council.

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Contents SUMMARY 1 1 THE STATE OF LAND CHANGE MODELING 11 The Significance of Land Systems and Land Change Models, 13 Key Concepts, 15 Needs for Science and Practice, 19 Model Uncertainty, 21 Measurement and Characterization of Land Change, 23 Structure of the Report, 27 2 LAND CHANGE MODELING APPROACHES 29 Machine Learning and Statistical, 30 Cellular, 37 Sector-Based and Spatially Disaggregated Economic, 44 Agent-Based, 57 Hybrid Approaches, 65 A Comparison of Land Change Modeling Approaches, 68 3 IMPROVING LAND CHANGE MODELING 75 Opportunities for Advances in Land Change Models, 75 Opportunities in Land Observation Strategies, 84 Opportunities in Cyberinfrastructure, 90 Opportunities for Infrastructure to Support Land Change Modeling, 93 Model Evaluation, 98 ix

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x CONTENTS REFERENCES 107 APPENDIXES A List of Contributors 129 B Online Questionnaire 135 C Committee and Staff Biographies 137