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Distributed Decision Making
Report of a Workshop
Committee on Human Factors
Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education
National Research Council
National Academy Press
Washington, D.C. 1990
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NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the
National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineenng, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the
committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard to
appropriate balance.
This report has been reviewed by a group other than the authors according to procedures
approved by a Report Review Committee consisting of members of the National Academy of
Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine.
The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of dis-
tinguished scholars engaged in sacntiSc and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of
science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter
granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the
federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Frank Press is president of the National
Academy of Sciences.
The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National
Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its
administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences
the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also
sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research,
and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Robert M. White is president of the
National Academy of Engineering.
The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to
secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy
matters pertaining to the health of the public The Institute acts under the respasibility given to the
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and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Samuel
O. Thier is president of the Institute of Medicine.
The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to
associate the broad community of scicace and technology with the Academy~s purposes of furthering
knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies
determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the
National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in prodding services to the
government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered
jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine Dr. Frank Press and Dr. Robert White are
chairman and vice chairman, respectively, of the National Research Council.
This work relates tO the Department of the Navy Grant N0Q014~5-6 0093 issued by the Office
of Naval Research and Department of the Army Grants MDA903 88-C 0031 and MDA903-89-K 0074
issued by the Defense Supply Service Washington. However, the content does not necessarily reflect
the position or the policy of the Government, and no official cndomcmcnt should be inferred.
The United States Government has at least a royalty-free, nonexclusive and irrevocable license
throughout the world for gove2nmcnt pu~scs to publish, translate, reproduce, deliver, perform,
dispose of, and to authorize others so as to do, all or any portion of this work
Library of Congress Catalog Card No. 89 64440
International Standard Book Number 0-309 04199-6
Additional copies of this report are available from:
National Academy Press
2101 Constitution Avenue N.W.
Washington, D.C 20418
S103
Printed in the United States of America
First Printing, April 1990
Second Printing, July 1991
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Dedicated to the memory of
Clyde H. Coombs: scholar, citizen, fnend
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COMMITTEE ON HUMAN FACTORS
DOUGLAS H. HARRIS (Chair), Anacapa Sciences, Inc., Santa Barbara,
California
PAUL ~ Al lE;WELL, Department of Sociology, State University of New
York, Stony Brook
MOHAMED M. AYOUB, Institute of Biotechnology, Texas Tech
University
JEROME I. ELKIND, Xerox Corporation, Sunnyvale, California
MIRIAN M. GRADDICK, AT&T Corporation, Basking Ridge, New
Jersey
OSCAR GRUSKY, Department of Sociology, University of California,
Los Angeles
JULIAN HOCHBERG, Department of Psychology, Columbia University
THOMAS K LANDAUER, Bell Communications Research, Mornstown,
New Jersey
NEVILLE P. MORAY, Department of Mechancial and Industrial
Engineering,.University of Illinois
RAYMOND S. NICKERSON, BEN Laboratories, Cambridge,
Massachusetts
CHRISTOPHER D. WICKENS, Aviation Research Laboratory,
University of Illinois
ROBERT C. WILLIGES, Department of Industrial Engineering and
Operations Research, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State
University
J. FRANK YATES, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan
HAROLD P. VAN COST, Study Director
BEVERLY M. HUEY, Research Associate
ELIZABETH F. NEILSEN, Research Associate
SARA K WAMSLEY, Senior Secretary
v
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PARTICIPANTS
WORKSHOP ON DISTRIBUTED DECISION MAKING
Baruch Fischhoff (Cochair), Deparunent of Social & Decision Sciences,
Department of Engineering & Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon
University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Oscar Grusly (Cochair), Department of Sociology, University of
California, Los Angeles
Kathleen Carley, Department of Social & Decision Sciences, Carnegie
Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Clyde Coombs, Department of Psychology, University of Michigan
Robyn Dawes, Department of Social & Decision Sciences, Carnegie
Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania
Stanley Deutsch, Study Director (1985-1987), Committee on Human
Factors
Ralph Disney, Department of Industrial Engineering, Texas A & M
University, Houston, Texas
Larry Hirschhorn, Wharton Center for Applied Research, University of
Pennsylvania
Milton Katz, Army Research Institute for the Behavioral and Social
Sciences, Alexandria, Virginia
GaIy Klein, Klein Associates, Inc., Yellow Springs, Ohio
Todd LaPorte, Institute for Governmental Studies, University of
California, Berkeley
Arie Lewin, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina & National
Science Foundation, Washington, D.C.
Elizabeth Pate-Cornell, Department of Industrial Engineering, Stanford
University
One Svenson, Department of Psychology, University of Stockholm
Frederick Thompson, Center for Naval Analysis, Alexandria, Virginia
Oliver Williamson, Department of Economics, University of California,
Berkeley
V~1
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Foreword
The Committee on Human Factors was established in October 1980
by the Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education of
the National Research Council. The committee is sponsored by the Air
Force Armstrong Aeromedical Research Laboratory, the Air Force Office
of Scientific Research, the Army Advanced Systems Research Office, the
Army Human Engineering Laboratory, the Army Research Institute for
the Behavioral and Social Sciences, the Federal Aviation Administration,
the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, the National Science
Foundation, the Nuclear Regulatory Commission, and the Office of Naval
Research. The principal objectives of the committee are to provide new
perspectives on theoretical and methodological issues, to identify basic
research needed to expand and strengthen the scientific basis of human
factors, and to attract scientists both within and outside the field for
interactive communication and to perform needed research. The committee
aims to provide a solid foundation of research as a base on which effective
human factors practices can build.
Human factors issues arise in every domain in which humans interact
with the products of a technological society. In order to perform its role
effectively, the committee draws on experts from a wide range of scientific
and engineering disciplines. Members of the committee include special-
ists in such fields as psychology, engineering, biomechanics, physiology,
medicine, cognitive sciences, machine intelligence, computer sciences, so-
ciology, education, and human factors engineering. Other disciplines are
represented in the working groups, workshops, and symposia organized by
the committee. Each of these disciplines contributes to the basic dam,
theory, and methods required to improve the scientific basis of human
factors
. .
V11
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Contents
Preface..........
Introduction ............................
Theories for Distributed Decision Malting
Exploring Alternative Definitions, 4
Improving the Availability of Existing Theories, 5
Extending the Range of Existing Theories, 6
Empirical Research for Distributed Decision Making .............
Research Topics in Individual Behavior, 7
Research Topics in Individual-Machine Behavior, 10
Research Topics in Multiple Individual Behavior, 13
Research Topics in Organizational Behavior, 15
Research Methods for Distributed Decision Making, 16
References ........................................................
Appendix A: The Possibility of Distnbuted Decision Making
Baruch Fischhoff and Stephen Johnson ..................
Appendix B: Background Matenals ........................
ax
...21
25
.59
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Preface
Since its inception in 198O, the Committee on Human Factors of the
National Research Council has issued a series of reports regarding the
state of knowledge and research needs in different areas. Some of these
topics have been pursued on the committee's own initiative, whereas others
were suggested by its sponsors. In 1984, two sponsors of the committee,
the Office of Naval Research and the Army Research Institute for the
Behavioral and Social Sciences, approached the committee to express in-
terest in the topic of distributed decision making. After deliberation, the
committee developed a workable definition of that concept in the form
of a description of the task faced by "organizations in which the informa-
tion and responsibility for decision making Is distributed among individuals
within the organization, who are often distributed geographically." The
committee concluded that, although the term was new, the problem is an
old one, given important new wrinkles by advances in modern technology.
The committee then decided to plan and hold a workshop on this topic.
I-he workshop was held December ~5, 1986, in Washington, D.C.
In the course of preparing its approach to the workshop, the commit-
tee benefited greatly from briefings by John Dockery, Office of the Joint
Chiefs of Staff, and staff members at the Applied Physics Laboratory of
Johns Hopkins University, coordinated by Bruce Hamill. Karen Cook of
the University of Washington, Zvi Lanir of 161 Aviv University, Chuck Mills
of the U.S. Forest Service, living Mirman of Decision Process Systems, and
Franklin Moses of the Army Research Institute also provided useful input.
In constituting the workshop, particular attention was paid to ensuring
that all disciplines relevant to the problem would be represented and that
existing scientific knowledge would be brought to bear on the problem. We
In
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were fortunate to have the active participation of many distinguished indi-
viduals before, during, and after the workshop. We gratefully acknowledge
the contributions of everyone who has helped us in this endeavor.
Prior to the workshop, all participants received a copy of an article
by Baruch Fischhoff and Steven Johnson, "The Possibility of Distributed
Decision Making." Since the human factors community had paid little
attention to this area as a significant social and scientific problem, this
paper provided needed background and served as a point of departure for
the thinking of the workshop participants. Because of its central role, and
because it provides an introduction to some of the issues and literatures
of distributed decision making, the article appears as Appendix A to this
report.
Three reports by participants on their own research with existing
distributed decision-making systems were also valuable: one by Add R.
LaPorte on managing air traffic control, electricity utility grids, and aircraft
carrier operations; another by Gary Klein on fire fighting in both urban and
rural environments; and a third by Frederick Thompson on the Composite
Warfare Commander approach to management of war at sea. In addition,
the Report of the Presidential Commission on the Space Shuttle Challenger
Accident provided workshop participants with a valuable perspective. These
discussions of concrete cases provided a common pool of examples for all
participants, as well as the opportunity to become familiar with one another
(and one another's disciplines) by working through a problem together.
The topics discussed in the workshop and summary here are but a
subset of issues comprising the domain of distributed decision making.
They were chosen because the committee judged them to be of particular
interest to the human factors community. Other topics, important as they
may be, were excluded from the two-day format adopted.
The organizing committee for the workshop included Clyde H. Coombs,
Oscar Grusly, and Banlch FischhofI. Shortly after the workshop, Clyde
died. With him, we all lost a great friend and the scientific community lost
a major contributor. In a small measure of our appreciation, we dedicate
this report to him. He played a significant role in its creation.
Appreciation is extended to Harold plan Colt, committee study direc-
tor, who offered technical and editorial suggestions to improve the report;
Elizabeth Neilsen, research associate, who coordinated workshop and pub-
lication logistics and contributed to the editing of the report; Christine
McShane, CBASSE reports editor, who improved the clarity and style
of the final draft; and Sara Wamsley and Carole Foote, who provided
administrative and secretarial support
Douglas H. Harris, Chair
Committee on Human Factors
,,
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