Baruch Fischhoff (Chair) is Howard Heinz University Professor in the Departments of Social and Decision Sciences and of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. His research includes risk communication, analysis, and management; adolescent and medical decision making; national security; and environmental protection. He is a past president of the Society for Risk Analysis and a recipient of its Distinguished Achievement Award, and he is a past president of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. He is a fellow of the American Psychological Society and of the American Psychological Association, and he is an elected member of the Institute of Medicine. He chairs the Food and Drug Administration’s Risk Communication Advisory Committee. He is a current member of the Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Advisory Committee and past member of the Environmental Protection Agency Scientific Advisory Board where he chaired the Homeland Security Advisory Committee. He holds a B.S. in mathematics and psychology from Wayne State University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in psychology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem.
Hal R. Arkes is a professor in the Department of Psychology and a fellow at the Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University. His research focuses on judgment and decision making, medical decision making, and economic decision making. He serves on the editorial boards for the Journal of Behavioral Decision Making, the Journal of Judgment and Decision Making, the Journal of Medical Decision Making, and Psychological Science. He is an elected fellow of the American Psychological Society and
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B Biographical Sketches of Authors and Staff Baruch Fischhoff (Chair) is Howard Heinz University Professor in the Departments of Social and Decision Sciences and of Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University. His research includes risk communi- cation, analysis, and management; adolescent and medical decision making; national security; and environmental protection. He is a past president of the Society for Risk Analysis and a recipient of its Distinguished Achieve- ment Award, and he is a past president of the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. He is a fellow of the American Psychological Society and of the American Psychological Association, and he is an elected member of the Institute of Medicine. He chairs the Food and Drug Administration’s Risk Communication Advisory Committee. He is a current member of the Department of Homeland Security’s Science and Advisory Committee and past member of the Environmental Protection Agency Scientific Advisory Board where he chaired the Homeland Security Advisory Committee. He holds a B.S. in mathematics and psychology from Wayne State University and an M.A. and Ph.D. in psychology from the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. Hal R. Arkes is a professor in the Department of Psychology and a fel- low at the Moritz College of Law at Ohio State University. His research focuses on judgment and decision making, medical decision making, and economic decision making. He serves on the editorial boards for the Jour- nal of Behavioral Decision Making, the Journal of Judgment and Decision Making, the Journal of Medical Decision Making, and Psychological Sci- ence. He is an elected fellow of the American Psychological Society and 333
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334 INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: FOUNDATIONS has served as president for the Society for Judgment and Decision Making. He has received the Outstanding Teaching Award from Ohio University’s College of Arts and Sciences and two Teaching Recognition Awards from Ohio University. He has a B.A from Carleton College, an M.S. in psychol- ogy from the University of Michigan, and a Ph.D. in psychology from the University of Michigan. Bruce Bueno de Mesquita is a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution and the Silver professor of politics at New York University. In the broad context of international conflict, foreign policy formation, and nation building, his current research focuses on the links between political institutions, eco- nomic growth, and political change. He is also investigating the causes and consequences of international conflict, as well as national security policy forecasting and analysis. He is an elected member of the American Acad- emy of Arts and Sciences and a member of the American Political Science Association, the International Studies Association, and the Peace Science Society. He is also a member of the board of advisers of the James A. Baker III Institute for Public Policy at Rice University. He has a B.A. from Queens College, an M.A. and a Ph.D. in political science from the University of Michigan, and an honorary doctorate from the University of Groningen in the Netherlands. Cherie Chauvin, Study Director, is a program officer at the National Research Council, working on several studies and workshops relevant to defense and national security issues. Previously, she held several positions with the U.S. Department of Defense’s Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA), where her work included support for military operations and liaison rela- tionships in Japan, South Korea, and Mongolia, as well as conducting intelligence collection operations in Afghanistan to answer strategic and tactical military intelligence requirements. In recognition of her service, she was awarded the DIA Civilian Expeditionary Medal, the Department of the Army Commander’s Award for Civilian Service, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence National Meritorious Unit Citation. She holds a B.S. in cognitive science from the University of California at San Diego, an M.A. in international relations from The Maxwell School at Syracuse University, and an M.S. in strategic intelligence from the National Defense Intelligence College. Thomas Fingar is a research scholar at Stanford University. Previously, he served as deputy director of national intelligence for analysis at the Office of the Director of National Intelligence and chairman of the National Intel- ligence Council, and as assistant secretary of the Bureau of Intelligence and Research at the U.S. Department of State. Prior to joining the State
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335 APPENDIX B Department, he held several research appointments at Stanford University, including senior research associate in the Center for International Security and Arms Control and director of the Stanford U.S.–China Relations Pro- gram. His many books and articles have focused mostly on national secu- rity and aspects of Chinese politics and policy making. He is a recipient of the Presidential Rank Award of Distinguished Executive. He has a B.A. in government and history from Cornell University and an M.A. and a Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University. Reid Hastie is Robert S. Hamada Professor of Behavioral Science in the Graduate School of Business at the University of Chicago. Previously, he held positions at Harvard University, Northwestern University, and the University of Colorado. His primary research interests are in the areas of judgment and decision making (managerial, legal, medical, engineering, and personal), memory and cognition, and social psychology. Currently, he is studying the psychology of investment decisions; the role of explanations in category concept representations (including the effects on category clas- sification, deductive, and inductive inferences); civil jury decision making (punitive damages and sexual harassment); the primitive sources of confi- dence and probability judgments; decision-making competencies across the adult life span; and neural substrates of risky decisions. He has a Ph.D. in psychology from Yale University. James Kajdasz, Lieutenant Colonel in the U.S. Air Force, is an instructor at the National Defense Intelligence College, Joint Base Anacostia–Bolling, DC. He has held a variety of assignments in both military intelligence and academia, including at Hurlburt Field, Florida; Prince Sultan Air Base, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia; and Osan Air Base, Republic of Korea; as well as an assistant professor of behavioral sciences and leadership at the U.S. Air Force Academy. His mixed background in academia and operational intelligence has led to his major focus on applying academic theory to, and empirical study of, intelligence analysis methods that can improve the quality of intelligence training and analysis. He has a B.S. from the U.S. Air Force Academy, an M.A. from George Mason University, and a Ph.D. in quantitative psychology from Ohio State University. Edward H. Kaplan is the William N. and Marie A. Beach Professor of Management Sciences at the School of Management, a professor of public health at the School of Public Health, and a professor of engineering in the School of Engineering and Applied Science, all at Yale University. He also codirects the Daniel Rose Technion–Yale Initiative in counterterror and homeland security operations research. His work is in operations research, mathematical modeling, and statistics, focusing on problems in
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336 INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: FOUNDATIONS public policy and management. His recent research has focused on issues in counterterrorism, including the tactical prevention of suicide bombings, bioterror preparedness, and response logistics in the event of a smallpox or anthrax attack. His work on smallpox received the 2003 Koopman Prize of the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences, and his research evaluating suicide bomber detector schemes received the same award in 2005. He is an elected member of the National Academy of Engineering and of the Institute of Medicine. He has a B.A. from McGill University in economic and urban geography and master’s degrees in opera- tions research, city planning, and mathematics along with a Ph.D. in urban studies from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Steve W. J. Kozlowski is professor of organizational psychology at Michi- gan State University. His research is focused on the design of active learn- ing systems and the use of “synthetic experience” to train adaptive skills, systems for enhancing team learning and team effectiveness, and the critical role of team leaders in the development of adaptive teams. The goal of his programmatic research is to generate actionable theory, research-based principles, and deployable tools to facilitate the development of adaptive individuals, teams, and organizations. He is the editor of the Journal of Applied Psychology, and he has served on the editorial boards of the several other journals. He is a fellow of the American Psychological Association, the Association for Psychological Science, the International Association for Applied Psychology, and the Society for Industrial and Organizational Psychology. He holds a B.A. in psychology from the University of Rhode Island and an M.S. and a Ph.D. in organizational psychology from Penn- sylvania State University. gary H. McClelland is professor of psychology at the University of Colo- rado and a faculty fellow of the Institute of Cognitive Science. His research interests include judgment and decision making, psychological models of economic behavior, experimental economics, statistics and data analysis, measurement and scaling, mathematical psychology, and graphical data displays on the web and on paper. His major books and articles focus on such topics as optimal design in psychological research, testing treatment by covariate interactions when treatment varies within subjects, continuing issues in the everyday analysis of psychological data, statistical difficulties of detecting interactions and moderator effects, insurance for low-probability hazards, and preference reversals and the measurement of environmental values. He received a Ph.D. from the University of Michigan. Barbara Mellers is the Heyman University Professor in the Department of Psychology and the Wharton School of Business at the University of
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337 APPENDIX B Pennsylvania. She is interested in how people make judgments and deci- sions, with a special focus on deviations between normative theories and actual behavior. Her current research examines ways in which anticipated emotions and moods influence choice. She is also interested in the effects of the context and the question format on preference measurement. She holds a B.A. in psychology from the University of California at Berkeley and an M.A. and a Ph.D. in psychology from the University of Illinois at Urbana–Champaign. Kiron K. Skinner is the W. Glenn Campbell research fellow at Stanford University’s Hoover Institution and an associate professor of international relations and political science at Carnegie Mellon University. One of her books uses insights and applications from rational choice theory and the framework of comparative presidential studies to investigate how Ronald Reagan and Boris Yeltsin, statesmen once considered to be on the politi- cal fringe, came to commandeer the electoral centers of their respective countries. Her government service includes serving as a member of the U.S. Defense Department’s Defense Policy Board, Chief of Naval Operations Executive Panel, and National Security Education Board. She is a member of the board of the Atlantic Council of the United States and a member of the Council on Foreign Relations. She holds an A.B. in political science from Spelman College and an A.M. and a Ph.D. in political science and international relations from Harvard University. She also received an hon- orary doctorate of laws from Molloy College on Long Island. Barbara A. Spellman is professor of psychology and professor of law at the University of Virginia. Her research concerns higher order cognition (i.e., thinking, reasoning, decision making), spanning issues in cognitive, social, developmental, and legal psychology. She has also studied decision making in the face of potentially unreliable and deceptive information. She is an elected fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science and of the Association for Psychological Science (APS) and has been on the governing boards of APS and the Psychonomic Society. She has also served on many editorial boards and is currently editor-in-chief of Perspectives on Psychological Science. She received a B.A. in philosophy from Wesleyan University, a J.D. from New York University School of Law, and a Ph.D. in psychology from the University of California at Los Angeles. Philip E. Tetlock is the Annenberg University Professor in the Depart- ment of Psychology and the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania. His research covers three general areas: learning from experience, including how experts think about possible pasts (historical
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338 INTELLIGENCE ANALYSIS: FOUNDATIONS counterfactuals) and probable futures (conditional forecasts); designing accountability systems, including when such systems promote mindless con- formity, defensive bolstering of prior positions, or thoughtful self-critical analysis; and the challenges of de-biasing judgment and choice, including how organizations structure norms and incentives to check common cog- nitive biases and avoid triggering mirror-image biases. He has served on numerous editorial boards, including the Annual Review of Psychology and the Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, and he has received awards from the American Psychological Association, the American Politi- cal Science Association, and the American Association for the Advancement of Science. He has a Ph.D in psychology from Yale University. Catherine H. Tinsley is an associate professor at the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University, a Zaeslin fellow at the College of Law and Economics at the University of Basel, and a research fellow at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration. She studies how factors such as culture, reputations, and negotiator mobility influence how people negotiate and how they manage conflict. She also looks at how near-miss events bias perceptions of risk and how these biases instantiate themselves in individual and organizational decisions regarding low-probability, high- consequence events such as: natural disasters, man-made disasters (terrorist attacks), and organizational disasters (oil spills and space flight mishaps). She has served on the editorial boards of numerous publications. She holds an M.A. and a Ph.D. in organizational behavior from the J.L. Kellogg Graduate School of Management at Northwestern University. Amy Zegart is associate professor at the School of Public Affairs of the University of California at Los Angeles and a research fellow at the Hoover Institution at Stanford University. Previously, she served on the Clinton Administration’s National Security Council staff, as a foreign policy advi- sor to the Bush–Cheney 2000 presidential campaign, and as a consultant on strategy and organizational effectiveness for McKinsey & Company. Her research examines the organizational deficiencies of American national security agencies. Her most recent book, Spying Blind: The CIA, the FBI, and the Origins of 9/11, won the Louis Brownlow Book Award of the National Academy of Public Administration. She is a lifetime member of the Council on Foreign Relations and a member of the Pacific Council on International Policy. She holds an A.B. in East Asian studies from Harvard University and a Ph.D. in political science from Stanford University.