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URBANIZATION, ENERGY, AND AIR POLLUTION IN CHINA

THE CHALLENGES AHEAD

PROCEEDINGS OF A SYMPOSIUM

DEVELOPMENT, SECURITY, AND COOPERATION POLICY AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS

NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES

CHINESE ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING

CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES

THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS
Washington, D.C.
www.nap.edu



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Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead - Proceedings of a Symposium URBANIZATION, ENERGY, AND AIR POLLUTION IN CHINA THE CHALLENGES AHEAD PROCEEDINGS OF A SYMPOSIUM DEVELOPMENT, SECURITY, AND COOPERATION POLICY AND GLOBAL AFFAIRS NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES NATIONAL ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES CHINESE ACADEMY OF ENGINEERING CHINESE ACADEMY OF SCIENCES THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS Washington, D.C. www.nap.edu

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Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead - Proceedings of a Symposium THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES PRESS 500 Fifth Street, N.W. Washington, DC 20001 NOTICE: The project that is the subject of this report was approved by the Governing Board of the National Research Council, whose members are drawn from the councils of the National Academy of Sciences, the National Academy of Engineering, and the Institute of Medicine. The members of the committee responsible for the report were chosen for their special competences and with regard for appropriate balance. This study was supported funding from the National Academies. Any opinions, findings, conclusions, or recommendations expressed in this publication are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily reflect the views of the organizations or agencies that provided support for the project. International Standard Book Number 0-309-09323-6 (Book) International Standard Book Number 0-309-54604-4(PDF) Copies of this report are available from the National Academies Press, 500 Fifth Street, N.W., Lockbox 285, Washington, DC 20055; (800) 624-6242 or (202) 334-3313 (in the Washington metropolitan area); Internet, http://www.nap.edu Copyright 2004 by the National Academies. All rights reserved. Cover Photo: Jack J. Fritz Printed in the United States of America

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Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead - Proceedings of a Symposium THE NATIONAL ACADEMIES Advisers to the Nation on Science, Engineering, and Medicine The National Academy of Sciences is a private, nonprofit, self-perpetuating society of distinguished scholars engaged in scientific and engineering research, dedicated to the furtherance of science and technology and to their use for the general welfare. Upon the authority of the charter granted to it by the Congress in 1863, the Academy has a mandate that requires it to advise the federal government on scientific and technical matters. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts is president of the National Academy of Sciences. The National Academy of Engineering was established in 1964, under the charter of the National Academy of Sciences, as a parallel organization of outstanding engineers. It is autonomous in its administration and in the selection of its members, sharing with the National Academy of Sciences the responsibility for advising the federal government. The National Academy of Engineering also sponsors engineering programs aimed at meeting national needs, encourages education and research, and recognizes the superior achievements of engineers. Dr. Wm. A. Wulf is president of the National Academy of Engineering. The Institute of Medicine was established in 1970 by the National Academy of Sciences to secure the services of eminent members of appropriate professions in the examination of policy matters pertaining to the health of the public. The Institute acts under the responsibility given to the National Academy of Sciences by its congressional charter to be an adviser to the federal government and, upon its own initiative, to identify issues of medical care, research, and education. Dr. Harvey V. Fineberg is president of the Institute of Medicine. The National Research Council was organized by the National Academy of Sciences in 1916 to associate the broad community of science and technology with the Academy’s purposes of furthering knowledge and advising the federal government. Functioning in accordance with general policies determined by the Academy, the Council has become the principal operating agency of both the National Academy of Sciences and the National Academy of Engineering in providing services to the government, the public, and the scientific and engineering communities. The Council is administered jointly by both Academies and the Institute of Medicine. Dr. Bruce M. Alberts and Dr. Wm. A. Wulf are chair and vice chair, respectively, of the National Research Council. www.national-academies.org

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Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead - Proceedings of a Symposium U.S. SYMPOSIUM PARTICIPANTS CHRIS G. WHIPPLE, chair, ENVIRON Corporation, Emeryville, California MICHAEL H. BERGIN, Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta JUDITH C. CHOW, Desert Research Institute, Reno, Nevada LEONARD LEVIN, Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto, California PAUL F. SCHWENGELS, Environmental Protection Agency, Washington, D.C. DANIEL SPERLING, University of California, Davis MICHAEL P. WALSH, consultant, Arlington, Virginia HUA WANG, World Bank, Washington, D.C. Staff JACK J. FRITZ, Senior Program Officer, National Academy of Engineering CAROL R. ARENBERG, Managing Editor, National Academy of Engineering JOHN BORIGHT, Executive Director, Policy and Global Affairs, National Research Council AIMEE CURTRIGHT, Research Associate, National Research Council

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Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead - Proceedings of a Symposium CHINESE SYMPOSIUM PARTICIPANTS ZHONGXIAN ZHAO, chair, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing RUIXIAN CAI, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing WEITANG FAN (CAE), China Energy Research Society, Beijing XIAOYAN TANG (CAE), Center of Environmental Science, Peking University, Beijing FOSONG WANG, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing XUCHANG XU, Department of Thermal Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing LUGUANG YAN, Institute of Electrical Engineering, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing JIANCHAO ZHENG, Electric Power Research Institute of China, Beijing MEMBERS OF CHINESE SECRETARIAT YINGSHI WANG, Secretary General, Professor, Institute of Engineering Thermophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences JIE CAO, Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences JINGHUA CAO, Office of American and Oceanian Affairs, Bureau of International Cooperation, Chinese Academy of Sciences ZHE JIN, Division of Energy and Mining Engineering, Chinese Academy of Engineering CHUNJIE LIU, General Office of Academic Divisions, Chinese Academy of Sciences QI TIAN, International Cooperation Department, Chinese Academy of Engineering Staff RUI YANG, University of Science and Technology of China, Heifei

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Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead - Proceedings of a Symposium Acknowledgments We wish to thank the National Research Council and the National Academy of Engineering of the National Academies, the Chinese Academy of Engineering, and the Chinese Academy of Sciences for their financial support of this project. We especially thank the members of the Chinese Secretariat for arranging this workshop and providing assistance to U.S. participants. The field visit to energy installations in and around Beijing showed the progress that has been made and the high level of effectiveness of steps taken to control air pollution around the capital city. Like previous exchanges between the Chinese and U.S. academies, this workshop showed that the economic future of both countries continues to be highly dependent on energy and the sound management of associated air pollution. Therefore, it is important that we work together to address the issues raised in these proceedings. We would like to thank all of the participants and authors who worked on this project. The papers represent the views of the authors and do not represent official policy of the U.S. or Chinese academies. The authors were at liberty to present information both governments can use in developing policies to address air pollution. These papers represent a first step toward a major consensus study by the Chinese and U.S. academies on urban energy policy. This volume has been reviewed in draft form by individuals chosen for their technical expertise, in accordance with procedures approved by the National Research Council’s Report Review Committee. The purpose of this independent review is to provide candid and critical comments that will assist the institution in making its published report as sound as possible and to ensure that the report

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Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead - Proceedings of a Symposium meets institutional standards for quality. The review comments and draft manuscript remain confidential to protect the integrity of the process. We wish to thank the following individuals for reviewing the report: David Allen, University of Texas at Austin, and Lee Schipper, World Resources Institute. Although they provided constructive comments and suggestions, they were not asked to endorse the content of the individual papers. Responsibility for the final content of the papers rests with the individual authors.

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Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead - Proceedings of a Symposium Contents      Introduction Jack J. Fritz   1     EMERGING AIR POLLUTION TRENDS IN CHINA          Motor Vehicle Pollution and Fuel Consumption in China Michael P. Walsh   11      Clean Air and the Electrification of Urban Transportation Luguang Yan and Xuhui Wen   29      The Characteristics of Urban Air Pollution in China Xiaoyan Tang   47      Rational Options for Clean Energy in Chinese Cities Weitang Fan and Zhufeng Yu   55      Programs to Control Air Pollution and Acid Rain Sarath K. Guttikunda, Todd M. Johnson, Feng Liu, and Jitendra J. Shah   73

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Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead - Proceedings of a Symposium      Energy and Environmental Impacts of Chinese Rural Vehicles Daniel Sperling and Zhenhong Lin   95     GLOBAL IMPACTS          Atmospheric Long-Range Transport of Urban Pollutants Leonard Levin   109     SAMPLING AND ANALYSIS          Monitoring and Assessing Particulate Matter Judith C. Chow and John G. Watson   127      Source Apportionment of Fine-Particle Pollution in Beijing Yuanhang Zhang, Xianlei Zhu, Limin Zeng, and Wei Wang   139      Radiative Forcing by Anthropogenic Aerosols: Sources and Impacts Michael H. Bergin   155     THE POWER SECTOR          Analysis of Emissions, Exposures, and Risks of Toxic Air Emissions from U.S. Coal-Fired and Oil-Fired Power Plants Chris G. Whipple   171      Environmental Performance of Coal-Fired Power Plants Financed by the World Bank Jack J. Fritz   187      Prospects for Distributed Combined Cooling, Heating, and Power Systems in China Liwen Feng and Yingshi Wang   205      Power-Sector Energy Consumption and Pollution Control in China Xuchang Xu, Changhe Chen, Haiyin Qi, Dingkai Li, Changfu You, and Guangming Xiang   217      Development of Clean-Coal Technology Hongguang Jin, Ruixian Cai, and Baoqun Wang   237

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Urbanization, Energy, and Air Pollution in China: The Challenges Ahead - Proceedings of a Symposium     INSTITUTIONAL ISSUES          Environmental Institutions in China Hua Wang and Changhua Wu   253     PUBLIC HEALTH          Ambient Air Pollution in Shanghai: A Health-Based Assessment Haidong Kan, Bingheng Chen, and Changhong Chen   283

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